As 2015 came to a close, many experts and commentators have been giving their predictions for 2016 on the topics of the economy, politics, stocks, and the world. New Year’s predictions are always a bit risky. One unexpected surprise can change the direction of everything.
For example, the first week of 2015, no one could have expected that Donald Trump would have actually made a run for the U.S. Presidency, let alone that he would have become the frontrunner with amazing staying power. in fact, everything I write here is prone to be found wrong in a very short period, but here we go with 10 bold predictions for 2016:
The U.S. economy will begin to slide back into recession.
U.S. stocks had its worst yearly performance since 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 2.2% for the year, and the more comprehensive S&P 500 dropped 0.7%. This day was coming, and anyone paying attention should have expected it.
All the bluster from the Obama Administration and Democrats about wanting to help the Middle Class is just empty rhetoric. Over the last 7 years the gap between the haves and the have-nots has grown. Obama’s economic strategy helped Wall Street with bailouts and cheep money, while on Main Street average American wages are lower, when adjusted for inflation, than in 2000.
We are a consumer driven economy, and consumers just don’t have the money to spend despite improvements in the unemployment rate. Obamacare has not only taken more of the money Americans do not have, but has increased taxes at the state and local levels as government agencies have had to pass on added costs to taxpayers.
We have reached the logical conclusion of putting an ideologue, with no experience in accomplishing anything real, into the White House.
Obama will be left holding the bag on the Iran deal.
Do you remember all the hullabaloo over the Iran Nuclear Deal? Republicans accused President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry of wanting any deal, at any cost. The Administration was accused of trusting the Iranians to comply with a deal, when they have historically shown that they do not keep deals or treaties. By the end of 2015, it became apparent the Republicans were right.
First, Iran has failed to even sign the agreement. Follow that with they have continued to perform long-range ballistic missile tests in violation of a U.N. resolution and the agreement, with the Obama Administration failing to hold the regime accountable. At the end of December, the Iranians fired rockets at the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Harry S Truman, coming within 1,500 yards of the ship, in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran wanted the sanctions lifted; they did not want limits placed on their nuclear program, and that is what the Obama Administration is giving them, It begs the question, what is the unspoken ideology of the Obama Administration? Why would they allow for a nuclear Iran?
ISIS will increase organized attacks on the West.
The days of “lone wolf attacks” and terrorisms labeled as workplace violence is over. It is not that those types of attacks will never happen, but the 2015 attacks in Paris and San Bernardino show that ISIS has teams and operatives throughout the West planning to attack.
President Obama wanted to blame Paris on Global Climate Change. He then wanted to blame San Bernardino on gun owners. Neither are true, and he knows neither are true. Those narratives were created because he does not believe the American public is informed or intelligent enough to know he is being deceptive. He hoped to use those tragedies to push his agenda. It is another example of this Administration putting ideology and politics before anything real.
The failure to identify the real problem, radical Islamic terrorism, will mean an escalation of attacks on American soil. Moreover, unlike al-Qaeda, who wanted to have large spectacular targets, the Islamic State is targeting small, soft targets. Don’t expect World Trade Center type attacks. We should expect attacks at concert centers, shopping malls, and elementary schools.
Gun control attempts will put an end to the Terror No-Fly List.
If 20 years ago, you were to tell me that the United States government was keeping a secret database of U.S. citizens, identified as subversives, I would have told you to keep your conspiracy theories to yourself. Today, we know our government keeps a list of more than 1 Million names on a No-‘Fly List, supposedly because they have evidence linking them to terrorists and identifying them too dangerous to fly.
Since the creation of the list, many thousands of American citizens have found themselves banned from flight, including servicemen, journalists, and even government officials, The late Senator Ted Kennedy even found himself restricted from travel. When do you find out you are on this list? When you try to get on a plane.
The government does not tell you how you got on the list, what evidence they have that put you on the terror watch list, nor is there any clear method to challenge the determination. In clear violation of due process, protected by Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments to the United States Constitution, the United States government has decided to restrict the freedom of travel without a day in court.
After the San Bernardino attack, Obama and other Democrats proposed using this same No-Fly List to restrict gun ownership rights. Their argument is that if these people are too dangerous to fly, they are too dangerous to own guns. However, the real question is: If there is evidence these people are a danger to the United States, why are they not being arrested, charged, given their day in court, and put in jail?
Hillary Clinton will NOT win the U.S. Presidency.
My original prediction was that Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic nominee for President, and for all the reasons that I believe Hillary Clinton will not win the Presidency. However, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the Democratic National Committee are going to make sure Hillary receives the nomination. It would take an all out rebellion within the Party for Sanders to win at this point.
We can start with Benghazi. There is proof positive that, from almost day one, Hillary knew the attack in Benghazi was organized terrorism, not a protest riot. She lied to the American people, putting out the narrative that it was caused by offence to an online Islamophobic video, because the Obama Administration did not want confirmation of a terrorist attack on Americans a month before the 2012 Presidential Elections.
How about her use of an unsecured server, in her home, to handle national business when she was Secretary of State? She says no emails “marked classified” ever went through her server. Well, that is because any email “marked classified” cannot be sent to unsecured non-government email accounts. The marking stops that from happening. However, the FBI investigation has shown that information Clinton knew or should have known was classified was being communicated through Hillary’s private email, which is a different animal all together.
The classified information issue is why I initially was leaning toward predicting Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic nominee for President. I expect that the FBI will make a recommendation to the Attorney General that Hillary Clinton be charged with mishandling classified information. The big question is: When will that recommendation be made? I have a strong feeling that the Obama Administration will pressure the FBI not to make the recommendation, and/or to push the recommendation off as long as possible. Either way, don’t expect this Attorney General to actually file charges.
The Clintons have a reputation of acting as if they are above the law, and are known for being less than honest. From the Clinton Foundation accepting millions from foreigners donors when Hillary was Secretary of State, something they were barred from doing, to Bill abusing his power and position to coerce a 22 year old intern into having sex with him in the Oval Office. We could go on. After Hillary is nominated, the American public will begin to relive the phenomenon of Clinton Fatigue. She cannot win.
The Republicans will not have a brokered convention.
Even if the Republicans go into their convention without an absolute winner, the only way there will be a brokered convention will be if there is no clear frontrunner, and I don’t see that happening. Establishment Republicans are going to have to take their medicine for not holding Obama accountable.
The American public gave Republicans clear majorities both in the House and the Senate. They have given Republicans a majority of Governorships, and state legislatures. We can blame Obama and the Democrats all day long for placing America down the wrong road, but the Republicans have done nothing to stop them.
Establishment Republicans are using the threat of a brokered convention to try and get voters in line behind an “appropriate” candidate, but they know if there is a clear frontrunner that they will rip the Party apart if that person does not receive the nomination.
Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.
As of today, many political pundits and commentators have started to hang their hat on a Ted Cruz nomination from the Republicans. They just cannot wrap their mind around a reality in which Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee or the President. Well, they better start getting use to the idea.
This is by no means an endorsement of Donald Trump. However, I do believe that the American public, not just Republicans, have had it with empty political rhetoric, with words and intentions being more important than action and results. Trump is a Republican, but is not an ideologue. Americans see Trump as a person committed to getting things done, not someone to push a specific political agenda.
Think about it. Donald Trump is a man of real accomplishment, He took a risk on New York City, when no other developer was willing, and he made New York great again. He has built things, real things. He has created jobs, real jobs. Some say that Trump has no executive experience, but he has real executive experience. This is what America wants… someone real.
President Obama will end his year in shame.
Almost every single thing that the Obama Administration would like to point at as an accomplishment is a failure, from Obamacare to closing Guantánamo. However, we do have to keep in mind that Obama comes from a segment of acidemia that promotes the idea all the world’s problems come from America being the richest nation in the world, with the most powerful military, and using that power and influence to intervene to the affairs of other nations.
Obama does not care about the rise of the Islamic State, and is visibly resentful that he is being forced to do anything about it. He wanted America to pull out of Iraq, and was willing to accomplish that goal at any cost. He truly believes if we just leave them alone, the world is better off. How is that working out?
Obamacare has turned out to be the biggest lie ever told to the American people… from you can keep your doctor to it will control healthcare costs. None of it was true, and Obama knew it when he was selling it. Obamacare was built to fail. It is an example of government creating a problem to fix a problem. The goal was to prepare the American people for single-payer, socialized medicine, and a government takeover of the largest segment of the U.S. economy.
Next on the list is the United States economy. Are you tired yet of the Administration telling you how wonderful the recovery has been? The average American is making less today than he/she made 15 years ago. We have a false recovery and a stock market bubble created by this Administration’s policies and years of zero interest rates from the Fed. It is all starting to unravel.
Google will own Twitter.
Readers of Koffee-O-Matic know that Twitter (TWTR 16,48 -0,13 -0,78%) has been a pet stock that I have been reporting and commenting on. My prediction has been, and remains, that the stock will bottom out at around $17 a share, eventually settling at $19 a share, and at that point there will be a takeover. I’m adding to that prediction of a takeover coming from Google, which has struggled with social media.
Twitter’s IPO price was $26, and it reached a all-time high of $69. However, it quickly became clear that the social media company was struggling to attract and keep users. Despite this fact, some experts, like Jim Cramer, were still promoting the company. If you bought and sold on these recommendations, you lost money.
Twitter’s management is completely out of touch and do not understand the psychology of users. Most of the changes to the platform, like “While You Were Gone” and “Moments”, exemplify this fact. At this point, anything positive changes will be too little too late. If the takeover attempt does not happen before reporting in February, expect the stock to plummet to the low teens.
However, I expect Google to take a run at the company before then. They failed with GooglePlus, and Twitter can be seen as an easy win with social media. They don’t want to be the last to the party. There are many other companies, including Facebook, that may be ready to jump in.
These predictions are all wrong.
Chaos theory being what it is, small changes to conditions could yield widely diverging outcomes, rendering all my long-term predictions impossible. It doesn’t take much for what seems an absolute certainty today to become an absolute impossibility. So, each of my predictions for 2016 are pretty much worthless until that actually happen. It is what it is.