Have you resolved yourself to the very real possibility of Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) becoming the next President of the United States? Have you accepted the idea that not only can he win Iowa, he could potentially sweep the Primaries? You may not embrace him, but have you embraced the reality of why Donald Trump is resonating with many voters?
My last bit of political commentary was in early December 2015, when Obama addressed the nation on the San Bernardino attack. The last commentary about the presidential race was in November, after the Republican Debate in Wisconsin. I rarely become burned out on politics, but I had reached my limits. I stayed tuned in, but quiet.
GOP Voters Like Donald Trump
Donald Trump, when we look at the RealClearPolitics Average of Polls, is leading among Republicans by more than 16 points over the last 14 days. In fact, since July 2015, he has consistently lead, except for one week in November when Ben Carson briefly jumped ahead by a faction of a percent. Why?
I really believe the first newsperson to accept the reality of Donald Trump was Chris Matthews (@hardball_chris) of Hardball. Matthews is an old lefty, but he is brilliantly insightful when it comes to politics. The rest of the political media, including those on Fox News, seemed to have been forced to accept reality kicking and screaming.
Americans Are Angry
Some in the media want to believe Donald Trump is a Frankenstein monster, created by Fox News and the Republican establishment. They want to believe that failed promises made to the Republican-base—repealing Obamacare, stopping illegal immigration, making abortion illegal, and protecting “traditional’ Marriage—has caused the rise of The Donald.
I don’t believe this to be completely true, especially when we take a close look at Donald Trump. Voters have come to believe neither the Republican nor the Democratic establishment have any intention of working in the best interest of the people. They all say what they need in order to get elected, but the United States government is now a one party system—The Establishment Party.
Americans want a leader, a fighter and a winner, and the United States has not had this type of President since Ronald Reagan. Americans perceive the nation as weak and failing, much as they did in 1980. I see many parallels in the 15 years leading up to the election of Reagan, and this last decade. Government has failed to adequately address or work to fix:
- The Middle East—everything from Islamic Terrorism to an Iraq and Afghanistan implosion to a weak deal with Iran.
- Jobs—not just an improved unemployment rate, but creation of good paying jobs.
- Foreign Policy—dealing with cyber threats, our relationship with Israel, Russia becoming more aggressive, and America becoming an unreliable ally.
- Economy—markets ended down in 2015, the first week of January was the worst market start in history, and we had the worse January overall in 20-some years… all indicators of soft and weakening economy.
- Healthcare—the lies of
- If you like your doctor then you can keep your doctor,
- If you like your health insurance, you will be able to keep your policy,
- Obamacare will control costs, and
- This is not a tax.
- Illegal Immigration—used as a wedge issue by both sides, and no one seems to want to fix.
The Rise of Trump
America’s current condition is not something we can solely blame on Barack Obama (@BarackObama). We have both Republicans and Democrats putting politics ahead of getting things done. This is why Donald Trump is winning with big ideas, but little on specific policies. Policies are formulated around political ideologies. Donald Trump, while he may lean Conservative, is seen as one who will not allow politics to get in his way of resolving issues.
This may be anecdotal, but I have spoke to lifelong Democrats who are ready to vote for Donald Trump in the General Election, if he is the Republican nominee. I know people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, who are ready to vote Trump. I know Union workers turning against the Democrats. Americans are ready to put an end to the Establishment Party in Washington.
Trump not only appeals to a large segment of the Republican Party, but also the Reagan Democrat, the forgotten white working-class. These voters may support a social safety-net and are Pro-Choice, but they are neither Progressive nor Socialist. These voters perceive good jobs going overseas, and the bad jobs being taken by those here illegally. Neither the government nor the Democratic Party are working for them, and promises to raise the minimum wage just don’t cut it.
In late December, I made the bold prediction that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States. I am updating that prediction. Keep in mind, this is not an endorsement. However, based on my observations, I believe the Americans people, not limited to Republicans, have had it with broken promises, empty political rhetoric, political correctness, and the political establishment placing words and intentions above action and results.
Trump is not an ideologue—like Barack Obama, Ted Cruz, or Bernie Sanders. Americans perceive Trump as a person focussed on success and committed to getting things done, not someone pushing a specific political agenda. America want real results. They want someone who has actually built things, created jobs, and is successful. They want a winner.
So, my updated predictions is with me doubling down and putting numbers to it. Trump will sweep the Republican Primaries, winning up to 45 states. That momentum and enthusiasm will translate into a landslide win of the General Election, and he will carry up to 49 states and receive up to 59% of the popular vote. He will win the U.S. Presidential Election with a clear mandate to fix government, and return America to a path of prosperity.
Do you have a different prediction? I would love to get you thoughts in the comments.